Housing Starts in Thunder Bay Down

THUNDER BAY – Business News – Housing starts in Thunder Bay, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 347 units in November down from 456 units in October according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) 1 of housing starts.

“A slightly below average month for construction of single-detached housing in November weakened housing starts for the month in Thunder Bay. Sixteen singles starts were just behind the 10-year average for the month coupled with no multi-family starts detailed the somewhat weaker new construction picture for November. CMHC’s forecast is still on track for fewer starts levels this year compared to 2012,” stated Warren Philp, CMHC’s Market Analyst for Thunder Bay.

Ontario Trend

Housing starts in the Ontario region were trending at 61,870 units in November, compared to 63,767 in October, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)(1) of housing starts.

“The trend in Ontario residential construction activity eased in the latest month with most dwelling types posting slower construction activity. Nevertheless, the starts trend remains higher than it was for most of the year. Demand for resale homes, a backlog of apartment units awaiting construction combined with a gradual improvement in the job market remain supportive of housing demand,” said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC’s Ontario Regional Economist.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next.

The SAAR of total housing starts was 56,932 units in November, down from 68,233 units in October. Multi family home construction which includes semi detached, row and apartment dwellings declined most while single detached starts also slowed more noticeably for the first time in three months. For the year ending November, Ontario urban starts are down 21 per cent from this time last year.