THUNDER BAY – It is a dead heat. If an election were to be called today, the latest Nanos tracking survey shows the NDP and the Conservatives locked in a tight race (33.6% versus 33.5%), while the Liberals continued to trail (24.9%).
Nik Nanos notes, “This is the first time in Nanos tracking history that the NDP have numerically surpassed the Conservatives albeit by 0.1 percentage points. The research suggests that there is no significant negative blowback by Thomas Mulcair’s comments on the oil sands. NDP support has trended up in Quebec and BC”.
The Nanos tracking survey also reports, “Further, healthcare and jobs/economy remained tied as the most important national issue of concern for Canadians (22.5% versus 21.2%)”.
When it comes to leadership, Stephen Harper retained his advantage in the Leadership Index, with a 24.2 point lead over his closest rival Thomas Mulcair (72.4 versus 48.2). Harper was also more likely to be considered the most trustworthy leader, most competent leader and leader with the best vision for Canada’s future. Of note about four in ten Canadians are disaffected with all the federal leaders (they are either unsure or say none are trustworthy, competent or have a vision).
Here is the details of the Nanos Tracking Survey:
National Ballot: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference)
Canada (n=1,006)
* The numbers in parentheses denote the change from April 18th, 2012.
Decided Voters Only
NDP: 33.6% (+1.2)
Conservative: 33.5% (-1.2)
Liberal: 24.9% (+1.6)
BQ: 3.4% (-0.5)
Green: 2.4% (-1.8)
16.2% of the total sample was undecided (-2.6)
National Issue: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted]
Canada (n=1,201)
Healthcare: 22.5% (+0.9)
Jobs/economy: 21.2% (-0.7)
Education: 6.9% (-3.2)
The environment: 6.2% (-3.1)
High taxes: 4.8% (-0.3)
Unsure: 13.1% (-3.5)
Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Thomas Mulcair is the leader of the federal NDP, Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party and Daniel Paillé is the leader of the Bloc Quebecois. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, the most competent, the leader with the best vision for Canada?
Leadership Index Score:
Stephen Harper: 72.4 (+6.6)
Thomas Mulcair: 48.2 (-5.6)
Bob Rae: 32.2 (-4.3)
Elizabeth May: 17.4 (-2.2)
Daniel Paillé: 6.0 (+0.7)
Most Trustworthy Leader:
Canada (n=1,201)
Stephen Harper: 22.9% (+2.9)
Thomas Mulcair: 15.5% (-4.0)
Bob Rae: 10.8% (-2.8)
Elizabeth May: 8.3% (-0.1)
Daniel Paillé: 1.9% (-0.1)
Undecided: 23.5% (+2.9)
None of them: 17.2% (+1.4)
Most Competent Leader:
Canada (n=1,201)
Stephen Harper: 27.8% (+3.6)
Thomas Mulcair: 15.3% (-1.7)
Bob Rae: 10.8% (-1.4)
Elizabeth May: 3.4% (-1.7)
Daniel Paillé: 2.2% (+0.9)
Undecided: 28.2% (+3.8)
None of them: 12.4% (-3.4)
Leader with Best Vision:
Canada (n=1,201)
Stephen Harper: 21.7% (+0.1)
Thomas Mulcair: 17.4% (+0.1)
Bob Rae: 10.6% (-0.1)
Elizabeth May: 5.7% (-0.4)
Daniel Paillé: 1.9% (-0.1)
Undecided: 29.9% (+2.8)
None of them: 12.9% (-2.3)