Will Prime Minister Mark Carney Continue Trudeau’s “Most Important Relationship” with Indigenous Peoples?

Thunder Bay-Superior North’s election battle heats up as Patty Hajdu faces Bob Herman and Joy Wakefield

Thunder Bay, ON – When Justin Trudeau became Prime Minister in 2015, he declared that Canada’s most important relationship was with Indigenous peoples. Now, with Mark Carney leading the Liberal Party into the next federal election, the question remains: Will that commitment continue?

Thunder Bay-Superior North is set to be a key battleground, with Minister of Indigenous Services Patty Hajdu defending her seat against former Thunder Bay Police Chief Bob Herman (Conservative) and lawyer Joy Wakefield (NDP). With issues of Indigenous rights, policing, and reconciliation front and center, this race could be one of the most closely watched in Northern Ontario.

Hajdu’s Record: Strength or Liability?

Patty Hajdu has held key cabinet positions under both Trudeau and now Carney, including Health and Indigenous Services, where she oversees critical files on clean water, infrastructure, and self-governance.

While she has been a strong advocate for Indigenous rights, critics argue that progress has been slow, particularly on longstanding issues like housing, boil-water advisories, and the Thunder Bay Police Service’s troubled relationship with Indigenous communities.

Hajdu’s success will likely depend on how much Indigenous voters trust that the Liberals will continue to deliver on reconciliation promises.

However, voter fatigue and growing skepticism about the federal government’s commitment could work against her.

Bob Herman: A Law-and-Order Conservative with Indigenous Policing Experience

The Conservatives have nominated Bob Herman, former Thunder Bay Police Chief and ex-Chief of the Nishnawbe Aski Nation (NAN) Police Service. His background in policing gives him credibility on crime and public safety—issues that are top of mind for many voters in the region.

However, his tenure at the Thunder Bay Police Service was marked by tensions with Indigenous communities, particularly regarding systemic racism allegations and policing failures.

If Herman can convince voters he has evolved on these issues and is committed to Indigenous justice, he could gain traction. But if past controversies resurface, he may struggle to win over Indigenous and progressive voters.

Joy Wakefield: The NDP’s Wild Card

The New Democrats have put forward Joy Wakefield, a lawyer with experience in human rights and Indigenous advocacy. While the NDP has held the seat in Thunder Bay-Superior North, Wakefield could benefit if left-leaning voters become disillusioned with the Liberals.

The NDP’s strong stance on Indigenous rights, including pushing for more aggressive action on reconciliation and police reform, could attract voters frustrated by Liberal inaction.

However, the challenge for Wakefield will be visibility—breaking through and taking command of the race early.

Who Will Win in Thunder Bay-Superior North?

Scenarios That Could Play Out:

• Hajdu Wins If: Liberal voters stay loyal, and Indigenous communities continue to see her as an ally. The Carney government must signal a strong commitment to Indigenous issues to keep her viable.
• Herman Wins If: Conservatives successfully frame crime and public safety as key election issues, and Herman reassures voters—especially Indigenous voters—that he is committed to meaningful reconciliation.
• Wakefield Wins If: The NDP capitalizes on frustration with both the Liberals and Conservatives, pulling progressive votes away from Hajdu while benefiting from Indigenous voter support.

Early Prediction: Slight Edge to Hajdu, but It’s a Close Race

At this stage, Hajdu remains the frontrunner due to her incumbent advantage and Liberal strength in past elections.

However, Herman could mount a serious challenge if crime dominates the election discourse.

If the NDP surges nationally, Wakefield could play spoiler, making it a true three-way race.

With the federal election approaching, all eyes will be on how Mark Carney handles Indigenous relations and whether Thunder Bay voters believe the Liberals still deserve their trust.