OTTAWA – POLITICS – The latest Abacus Data survey confirms that the federal Conservatives remain well ahead of the governing Liberals, with a 23-point lead that shows little sign of narrowing.
Neither the federal government’s announcement of a GST tax holiday nor the recent U.S. election results—returning Donald Trump to office—appear to have shifted the political landscape in Canada.
Conservative support remains at 44% among committed voters, while the Liberals and NDP each hover around 21% and 20% respectively. Regional and demographic patterns persist, with the Conservatives ahead across most of the country except Quebec, and maintaining robust leads even as their margin among younger voters remains smaller than among older cohorts.
Beyond vote intention, the public mood seems especially sour, hitting its lowest point this year. Only 22% of Canadians now believe the country is on the right track—fewer than those who think the United States is headed in the right direction.
Impressions of the federal government and the Prime Minister remain entrenched at a negative net score, while perceptions of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remain somewhat more balanced but have not improved.
Pierre Poilievre, though still attracting mixed feelings, maintains a modest net positive rating, suggesting that while many Canadians remain uncertain about him, he’s not facing the same level of widespread negativity as his chief rivals.
While Trump’s presence as an issue is now explicitly measured—one in five Canadians rate him and his incoming administration as a top issue—it has yet to dramatically rearrange partisan battle lines.
Still, Trump’s growing salience among Canadians underscores a potential risk for Poilievre. Although half of his supporters have a positive view of Trump, a third do not, highlighting a fracture within the Conservative coalition that could become more pronounced if the American President’s influence on Canadian politics intensifies.
On the whole, the data suggest a political environment defined by dissatisfaction, economic worries, and few short-term catalysts for change in party standings.
Canadians continue to prioritize affordability, healthcare, and housing, while immigration and even Trump’s return to the spotlight have risen in salience.
In this challenging context, the Conservatives have a commanding advantage on the key issues of the day, reinforcing their position as the party best placed, at least for now, to form the next government.
