Conservatives open up a 19-point lead over the Liberals, new Abacus Data poll finds.

Abacus Data has just completed its latest polling on confirmed voter strengths of Canada’s political landscape. The poll reports what David Coletto calls a “Commanding lead for the Conservatives”.

The survey of 2,398 Canadian adults from February 1 to 7, 2024, paints a detailed picture of the current political landscape, offering insights into how Canadians might cast their votes if an election were held today.

Key Survey Findings:

Conservative Lead: The Conservatives have opened up a commanding 19-point lead over the Liberals, marking a record tie for their largest national lead.

Voter Preferences: 43% of committed voters favor the Conservatives, followed by the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 18%, and the Greens at 4%. In Quebec, the BQ stands at 34%.

Regional Strengths: The Conservatives show robust leads in the Prairies, British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, with the BQ leading in Quebec.

Demographic Trends: The Conservative lead spans all age groups, with Liberal support increasing with the age of respondents. The NDP sees the opposite trend.

Political Sentiments:

Federal government approval is at a low of 24%, the lowest since the Liberals took office in 2015. Disapproval of the federal government’s performance is at 59%.

Justin Trudeau’s negative impression stands at 57% (with a net score of -33), while Pierre Poilievre receives a net positive score of +2.

Coletto’s Analysis

“The political environment continues to be deeply troubling for the Liberals. An historically low approval rating along with an electorate who few see good things in the federal government has led to a 19-point Conservative lead.

“As I’ve noted before, we are not experience a period of Poilievre-mania. The Conservative lead – built from those who haven’t voted Conservative in the past two elections – is more about a rejection of the Liberals than an embrace of the Conservatives. That still remains a liability for the Conservatives.

“But as long as people remain fatigued with Trudeau and unhappy with how the federal government is handling the key issues they care about, the Liberals will fail to rebuild their past coalition.”