Conservatives Gain Momentum in National Poll

The latest Abacus Data politics poll, conducted with 2,000 adults between November 9 and 12, 2023, unveils a significant shift in the Canadian political landscape. The Conservatives have taken a substantial lead over their rivals, marking their largest advantage since the 2015 election, with 41% of the vote compared to the Liberals at 25%, NDP at 19%, and Greens at 3%. In Quebec, the BQ is at 28%.

Public Sentiment Shifts Against Current Government

The survey paints a picture of a nation increasingly disillusioned with the current trajectory, with only 23% of Canadians believing the country is on the right track, and a stark 61% feeling it’s headed in the wrong direction. Additionally, there’s a notable drop in approval for the federal government, with 58% expressing disapproval of its performance.

Growing Discontent with Prime Minister Trudeau

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces widespread dissatisfaction, with nearly two-thirds of Canadians holding a negative impression and half calling for his resignation before the next election. Key issues fueling this sentiment include housing affordability, inflation, and public debt, alongside a general fatigue with his leadership.

Comparative Leadership Ratings

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is emerging as a preferred prime ministerial candidate, outpacing Trudeau with 27% support compared to Trudeau’s 17%. Despite Poilievre being relatively unknown to some, his positive impression stands at 35%, whereas Trudeau’s is marginally lower at 33%. However, Trudeau’s negative impression is significantly higher at 61%, compared to 45% for Poilievre.

Mixed Views on Other Political Leaders

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive view from 43% of respondents, but only 16% see him as the best choice for prime minister. Singh’s negative impression closely matches his positive ratings, indicating a divided opinion among the electorate.

Issues Driving Public Dissatisfaction

The Liberals’ handling of key issues such as affordable housing, inflation, climate change, public finances, and foreign relations with China and India is largely viewed negatively. This discontent is particularly pronounced regarding affordable housing and inflation.

Trudeau’s Leadership Longevity and Vision Questioned

A significant portion of the populace feels Trudeau has overstayed his tenure, with 74% opining that it’s time for a new prime minister due to his extended period in office. Additionally, two-thirds doubt his vision for Canada’s future.

Impact of a New Liberal Leader

The potential for a new Liberal leader seems to be a deciding factor for many voters. While 61% believe a leadership change wouldn’t sway their vote, there’s a significant segment of the electorate, including past Liberal supporters and NDP voters, who indicate a willingness to shift their vote in case of a leadership change.

Historical Context

In the backdrop of these findings, it’s noteworthy that only a few Canadian Prime Ministers have been elected more than twice, underscoring the challenge of sustaining long-term political support in Canada’s dynamic political environment.