THUNDER BAY – Tropical Storm Arthur is almost at hurricane strength. The storm has been gaining in strength through the day today. Environment Canada has issued Tropical Cyclone watches for; NEW BRUNSWICK, NEWFOUNDLAND, NOVA SCOTIA, and PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
The Weather Service reports:
1. Summary of basic information at 9.00 PM ADT.
Location: 30.1 north 79.0 west.
About 285 km east-northeast of orlando.
Maximum sustained winds: 110 km/hr.
Present movement: north near 16 km/h.
Minimum central pressure: 992 MB.
2. Public weather impacts and warnings summary.
The tropical storm is expected to intensify to hurricane strength tonight as it moves slowly northeastward not far off the U.S. East Coast. A trough of low pressure will be moving eastward from the Great Lakes, guiding Arthur toward Atlantic Canada. The nature of the trough approaching from the Great Lakes will make all the difference in Arthur’s intensity, track and structure as it moves toward our region. Scenarios range from a direct effect with wind and rain to a well-offshore track with perhaps just rain from the trough, drawing moisture from the tropical system.
As usual, the track map forecast implies detailed location and storm intensity however there is much uncertainty 3 days away.
A. Wind.
Too soon for details.
B. Rainfall.
Too soon for details.
C. Surge/waves.
Too soon for details.
3. Marine weather impacts and warnings summary.
Mariners should remain on alert and stay tuned for forecast updates.
Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest:
– forecast position, central pressure table.
– strength and predicted wind radii table.
– hurricane track information map.
– technical discussion.
Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.
Forecaster(s): fogarty/hatt
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
817 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
…ARTHUR ALMOST A HURRICANE…
.NEW INFORMATION…
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA…AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS IN VIRGINIA…INCLUDING THE
CURRITUCK SOUND…MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY…AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.
.AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA…
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA…AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE…
INCLUDING THE VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY…CURRITUCK
SOUND…ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS…AND TIDAL PORTIONS OF
THE JAMES…YORK…AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS…
PASQUOTANK…CAMDEN…INLAND CURRITUCK…BERTIE…CHOWAN…
PERQUIMANS…OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK…NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH…
CHESAPEAKE AND VIRGINIA BEACH.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY…CURRITUCK
SOUND…ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS…AND TIDAL PORTIONS OF
THE JAMES…YORK…AND RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION…
AT 8 PM EDT…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2N…LONGITUDE 79.2W. THIS WAS ABOUT 610 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OCEAN CITY MD…OR ABOUT 490 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VA. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 355 DEGREES
AT 8 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 70 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW…
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN TO
A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
LATE THURSDAY AND PASS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WITH THE TRACK OF ARTHUR
CONTINUES TO RELATE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED MINOR FLOODING.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING…NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS…OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.
FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS…DOCKS…AND MARINAS…URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT…MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.
REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING…SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION…
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE…
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT…OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
VAZ095-097-098-030830-
/O.CON.KAKQ.TR.W.1001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
817 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT…
…PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WHICH CAN CAUSE
OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
&&
…WINDS…
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. HOWEVER…AS TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
APPROACHES…STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND BE
READY TO ACT.
…STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE…
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS NOT CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME…THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR COMBINED STORM SURGE AND
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITHIN
AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST…RESULTING IN WORST CASE FLOOD
INUNDATION UP TO 1 FEET ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE
ZONE.
THE LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO REALIZE THE GREATEST FLOODING
INCLUDE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD OF IMPACT WILL COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDE. REMEMBER SURGE
WATERS OFTEN ARRIVE WELL BEFORE THE CORE WINDS AND CAN RISE VERY
QUICKLY.
THERE IS AN ELEVATED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM COASTAL
FLOODING…POTENTIALLY HAVING A LOW BUT NOTABLE IMPACT. THE
CONCERN IS FOR THE CHANCE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR IN
AREAS WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE…RESULTING IN SHALLOW INUNDATION. IF
REALIZED…PEOPLE WITHIN THE THREATENED AREAS WHO FAILED TO ACT
ACCORDING TO THEIR PERSONAL DISASTER PLAN WILL HAVE NEEDLESSLY
PLACED THEMSELVES AT SOME MEASURE OF RISK.
…INLAND FLOODING…
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN…WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING…PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.
…COASTAL HAZARDS…
THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL GREATLY INCREASE AS
ARTHUR APPROACHES THE AREA.
$$
