Hot Market for Sellers
THUNDER BAY – It is a seller’s market in Thunder Bay for Real Estate. In Thunder Bay listings shortages will continue in the resale market causing MLS® prices to rise again in 2014. We expect 6.5 per cent price growth in 2014 and 4.9 per cent in 2015 in this tight supply environment.
“Stable employment, and continued net in-migration supports above-average price gains and another steady year for new single-family construction,” noted Warren Philp, CMHC Market Analyst. “Higher density starts will move lower in keeping with historical averages but still bolster total housing starts numbers in 2014 and 2015,” added Philp.
After three years dominated by above average multi-family new construction, starts of semis, rows and apartment housing will follow below levels seen recently in Thunder Bay this year. Yet, the multiple unit starts expected this year and in 2015 will still be above the 20 year average for Thunder Bay but will trail the 131 multiple unit starts recorded in 2013. Another above average year for single-detached starts will bring the 2014 total to 255 units and 2015 to 290 units.
Adjusted Activity in Rest of Canada
According to CMHC’s second quarter 2014 Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition, economic and demographic fundamentals continue to be supportive of new building activity. However, builders are expected to continue to adjust activity, particularly with respect to multi-units, in order to manage inventory levels.
“Builders are expected to continue to manage their starts activity in order to ensure that demand from buyers seeking new condominium units is first channeled toward unsold completed units or unsold units that are currently under construction,” said Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Chief Economist for CMHC.
On an annual basis, housing starts are expected to range between 172,300 and 189,900 units in 2014, with a point forecast of 181,100 units, down from 187,923 units in 2013. In 2015, housing starts are expected to range from 160,600 to 203,600 units, with a point forecast of 182,100 units.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®2) sales are expected to range between 428,100 and 487,700 units in 2014, with a point forecast of 457,900 units, marginally changed from 457,338 in 2013. In 2015, sales are expected to range from 441,800 to 500,400 units, with an increase in the point forecast to 471,100 units.
The average MLS® price is forecast to be between $386,400 and $405,600 in 2014 and between $388,200 and $416,200 in 2015. CMHC’s point forecast for the average MLS® price calls for a 3.5 per cent gain to $396,000 in 2014 and a further 1.6 per cent gain to $402,200 in 2015.
