October Housing Starts Down
THUNDER BAY – “Despite the positive trend, a quieter month for construction of single-detached housing in October slowed total housing starts in Thunder Bay. The 15 singles starts were behind the 10-year average for the month while multi-family starts are still performing well above historic levels for the first ten months of the year. CMHC’s forecast is for slightly less starts levels this year compared to 2012,” stated Sandra Perez-Torres, CMHC’s Senior Market Analyst for Eastern and Northern Ontario. Across Ontario for the year ending October, Ontario urban starts are down 23 per cent from this time last year.
Housing starts in Thunder Bay, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 457 units in October up from 445 units in September according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)(1) of housing starts.
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next.
The standalone monthly SAAR was 211 units in October, down from 846 units in September.
Ontario Housing Starts Down 23%
For the year ending October, Ontario urban starts are down 23 per cent from this time last year.
Housing starts in the Ontario region were trending at 63,785 units in October, compared to 60,207 in September, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.
“Higher construction activity in recent months is proliferating beyond the GTA and beyond apartment construction with the trend in row and semi detached construction edging higher in a number of other metropolitan markets. The trend in Ontario starts is now pointing up suggesting that more strength can be expected in the months to follow. Higher demand for resale homes, a backlog of apartment units awaiting construction combined with a gradual improvement in the job market point to strong starts activity for the remainder of 2013,” said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC’s Ontario Regional Economist.
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next.
The standalone monthly SAAR was 68,227 units in October, up from 57,811 units in September and near its highest level on the year. Multi family home construction which includes semi detached, row and apartment dwellings contributed most to growth while single detached starts remained stable in October.
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