THUNDER BAY – Politics – The Ontario Liberals will face a non-confidence motion from the Progressive Conservatives. According to the latest polling from Ipsos Reid, the Wynne Liberals may face a serious challenge.

Ipsos Reid reports that “Liberal Leader and Premier Kathleen Wynne appears to be making a good first impression on Ontarians, but that doesn’t seem to be helping her party’s level of support”.

Ontario Political Landscape volatile

The new Ipsos Reid poll was conducted on behalf of the National Post, Global Television and CFRB Radio NewsTalk 1010 in Toronto.

Reflecting on her first few months in office, six in ten (59%) Ontarians believe that she has done a good job.

Despite this, it appears that the Ontario Liberals have lost their lustre.

If a provincial election were held tomorrow, 37% of decided voters would support Tim Hudak and the Progressive Conservative Party. Andrea Horwath’s NDP (29%) and Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals (28%) are in a dead heat for second place, while 6% would vote for some other party, including the Green Party. Nearly two in ten (17%) Ontarians, overall, don’t know who they would support or lean towards, meaning that there is opportunity for things to change significantly going forward. It’s likely that Wynne and Horwath aren’t yet clearly defined in the electorate’s mind, and so the campaign and the ballot questions which define these two leaders will be crucial in determining the outcome of an election.

It is worth noting that in the lead up to the fall 2011 General Election in Ontario, Tim Hudak’s Tories were as high as 42% support in Ipsos Reid surveys conducted in the summer of 2011. So while the PCs are ahead, they’re still far off their highs of 2011 in an election they ended up losing. In contrast, this is the highest that the NDP have polled in the province in a very long time, having only reached support in the mid-20’s in the last election cycle. This is setting the province up for a three-way dog fight – similar to the current dynamics in the federal political scene.

That the Liberals are not doing well, despite Kathleen Wynne’s initial popularity, is likely due to two fundamental things:

• A majority (54%) of Ontarians believe that the province is ‘headed in the wrong direction’ compared to 46% who think things are ‘on the right track’.
• Two thirds (66%) of Ontarians more closely believe that it is ‘time for another political party to take over’, while just one in three (34%) believe the ‘government has done a good job and deserves re-election’.