THUNDER BAY – The International Strategy and Reconciliation Foundation, an Asian-American think tank, forecasts a “tough presidential election victory” by Barack Obama, capturing 294 electoral votes and winning a popular vote majority of 50.3 percent over the Republican challenger Mitt Romney. It is the first time a Democratic president is expected to have sustained such a majority vote consecutively in a row in modern history of American presidential election.
Dr. Asaph Chun, who developed the ISR election forecasting model in 2003 and proved its viability in the past three US elections, identifies Obama’s keeping of the White House is grounded on “winning 7 of 9 battleground states including Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire” and capturing 19 out of 35 states that tended to follow party-line in 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections. The ISR G3 model predicts Romney would hold 244 electoral votes while reaping 47.6 percent of popular vote. The Hurricane Sandy effect Obama handled as “Chief in Crisis Management” has neutralized the presidential debate effect confident Romney demonstrated, erasing Romney’s 11th hour gains on the rise.
According to the ISR G3 forecasting model, designed to reduce “polling house effect” and make a viable voting prediction of “undecided voters,” Obama is expected to take an average lead of 7% to 15% among females, political moderates, and Hispanic and Asian minority whereas Romney’s lead comes among the elderly aged 65 or older, and White voters with high school or less education. Obama is forecast to win among most other groups of voters classified by education, age, and income. Sampling error varies from 1.5 to 3.1 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence for different groups.
The last polls before most Americans headed to the polls have the race too close to call. Barack Obama and Mitt Romney each expected to receive 48 percent of the vote based on a Toluna survey of 1,505 early or likely voters, all online users. Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party are expected to receive two and one percent of the vote in the Toluna Pre-Election Poll.
