THUNDER BAY – The latest Nanos national tracking has the Conservatives at 36.6% followed by the Liberals at 32.4%, the NDP at 16.3%, the BQ at 9.8% and the Greens at 4.9% nationally. Of note, the Ontario numbers have been vacillating between the Conservatives and the Liberals (the ‘she-loves me, she-loves me not’ trend line). This is likely a result of the influence of the economy as an issue and the potential volatility of voter opinions in Ontario.
Nik Nanos states, “A closer look at the gender breakdown indicates that the Conservative support heavily leans to men, while the Liberals have gender balance in their support and the NDP are more likely to draw support from women than men”.
“Interestingly, women are far more likely to undecided than men. Over one in five women are undecided (22.1%) compared to 12.1% of men. This suggests that women could emerge as a key political battleground in the coming months,” adds Nanos.
Methodology
Nanos conducted a random telephone survey of 1,002 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between October 1st and October 6th, 2010. A survey of 1,002 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20, for 831 committed voters, it is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Margins may be larger for smaller samples.
Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference)
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between August 28th and September 3rd, 2010.
National Committed Voters Only (n=831)
Conservative 36.6% (+3.3)
Liberal 32.4% (-0.4)
NDP 16.3% (+0.7)
BQ 9.8% (-2.3)
Green 4.9% (-1.3)
Undecided national: 17.1% (-1.5) of total voters surveyed
Undecided men: 12.1%
Undecided women: 22.1%