Written by James Murray
Tuesday, 24 November 2009 17:40
THUNDER BAY - Premier Dalton McGuinty stated, on Monday in the Ontario Legislature, "Let me just say that we are very much looking forward to moving ahead with this initiative, and I think it's important to understand it in its entirety. We're talking about reducing personal income taxes. We're talking about reducing corporate income taxes for our largest businesses. We're talking about reducing taxes for our small businesses as well. In fact, we're talking about putting in place a support package for small businesses to help them in their transition to the HST. We're talking about, in the end, creating nearly 600,000 more jobs for Ontarians.
"I think that when all is said and done, there is nothing to which we attach greater value today, in the face of a global recession, than a job creation strategy. That's fundamentally what this is all about. I know that the NDP in fact support anything that we can do to create more jobs for Ontarians".
The Ontario Liberals are stating that the HST will generate 600,000 new jobs.
On November 4, 2009 the Liberals stated, "A report released today by economist and tax expert Jack Mintz states that a harmonized sales tax combined with Ontario's proposed corporate income tax cuts and other recent tax changes would significantly increase jobs, boost capital investment and lead to higher annual incomes for Ontarians
The report predicts that over the next 10 years, as a result of these tax measures, Ontario would see:
- 591,000 net new jobs
- Increased capital investment of $47 billion
- Increased annual incomes of up to 8.8 per cent, or $29.4 billion
"The report concludes that, as a result of major tax reforms, Ontario would become more competitive internationally, with a lower tax burden on new
investment compared to the average of 20 major industrialized and emerging economies".
The Mintz report states, "Within ten years, the lower tax burden on investment will lead to increases in capital investment of $47 billion and in annual
incomes of between 4.4% and 8.8%, and to the creation of an estimated 591,000 net new jobs".
What the Mintz Report does not explain is what kinds of jobs will be created. Are they good paying manufacturing jobs? Or are they minimum wage jobs? That specific is missing. It also doesn't explain when those jobs will be created over the ten year period?
On September 13, 2007, under fire over the loss of 175,000 jobs in Ontario during his first term, McGuinty stated, "We've lost jobs, there's no doubt about it. But for every job we've lost we've created three."
The numbers the Premier cites mean that he was stating that during his first term that the McGuinty Government created 525,000 new jobs in Ontario, or 132,222 per year.
Under McGuinty's new HST, he is claiming that 600,000 new jobs will be created. That is 60,000 jobs per year. A difference of 72,222 fewer jobs created than the Premier claimed were created each year of his first term.
Both the Mintz Report, and Premier McGuinty have not explained what kinds of jobs this program will create.
Jobs Ontario states, "It is difficult to predict with accuracy which occupations will be in demand in the future and how many jobs will be created in these occupations. Economic conditions, technological developments, demographics and consumer behaviour will continue to influence the labour market, the occupational composition, and the kinds of job opportunities that will be available. Assessing industry trends is the first step in figuring out the potential for growth or decline in occupations or changes in skill requirements.
"Projections to the year 2009 indicate that the main source of new job creation will continue to be the service industries. Taken together, the health care and social assistance; wholesale and retail trade; professional, scientific and technical services; education services; accommodation and food; transportation and warehousing; public administration; information, culture and recreation; business, building and other services; and finance, insurance and real estate sectors will account for over three-quarters of the projected new jobs in the economy".
Predicting job creation over the next ten years sounds a little difficult, likely why in the Mintz report it is shy on specifics.
Its likely why Premier Dalton McGuinty is less willing to hold public meetings across Ontario to gather input from Ontarians.
The anger in Ontario seems slow to come to a boil. However if you scratch a little under the surface, it is growing. The Premier has already seen his polling numbers start to slide.
'Let them eat donuts'. A newspaper column by Toronto Sun columnist Connie Woodcock titled, "Harmonized tax does it -- Ontarians are getting angry," has inspired Phillip Blancher to put up a website called "Donuts for Dalton". Blancher states, "That I am just one of many in the group that are tried of getting taxed over and over again by Premier McGuinty".
The site generated over 500 people who have signed on promising to send a donut to Premier McGuinty since launching yesterday according to Blancher.
The harmonized sales tax legislation was launched at Queen's Park on Monday. The Ontario Progressive Conservatives walked out of the legislature in protest. The New Democrats stayed in the legislature, but they are dead set against the tax.
During Question Period on Monday, PC leader Tim Hudak stated, "This is clearly not the Dalton McGuinty who used to stand at this desk and fight for public hearings and consultations across this province. And this is certainly not the Dalton McGuinty who was against the HST in 2008, and now has turned it into a massive tax grab on working families across the province.
The Premier has said, well, this will be an election issue, and I expect it will. But in opposition, Premier, you said, "Democracy isn't just something that
takes place once every four years." That's what you said here. But now, as Premier, in his elite crowds, among his Liberal insiders and consultants, he refuses to meet with the seniors and working families who will pay the bill".
Andrea Horwath stated, "The Premier continues to ignore tens of thousands of everyday people who are worried about a new tax on gasoline, hydro, home heating, haircuts and much more. Why is the Premier plowing ahead with his unfair tax scheme when the House of Commons hasn't even passed legislation to make it possible?"
The Premier has already started rounding up the figures on job creation, but has yet to share specifics with Ontarians. This is one of those warm mushy political promises that sound all too familiar.
Bluntly put, ask yourself how many times have you heard a politician make a bold promise?
Now, how many times have you found that promise actually comes to pass?
- Remember Jean Chretien's promise to scrap the GST?
- Brian Mulroney's promises on eliminating patronage?
- Premier McGuinty's promise that "Ontario would lead the world in the manufacturing of hydrogen trains"?
None of those promises were kept!
Likely, although Premier McGuinty would likely disagree, this is probably one of those political promises that sound great, but are the ones that give politicans the bad name and reputation they have earned.
What is amazing is how the Premier has tried to express that somehow there need not be any public meetings where the public can get a chance to voice their opinion on the HST. My feeling is that if the entire McGuinty deal was really as great as the Premier is trying to sell it to us as, that he would be out selling the deal door-to-door to build support.
That he isn't speaks volumes.
James Murray
Last Updated on Tuesday, 24 November 2009 18:24
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