Conservative Surge Continues

Conservative Surge Continues

Friday, 16 October 2009 16:38

THUNDER BAY - Stephen Harper and the Conservatives appear to be continuing to gain momentum. The latest polls suggest that the Harper led Conservatives are approaching solid majority territory. The Conservative Party now has its biggest advantage over the Liberals since the October 2008 election that resulted in a second minority mandate, according to the Canadian Political Pulse, conducted by Angus Reid Strategies in partnership with the Toronto Star.

The online survey of a representative national sample of 1,003 adults finds that the views of Canadians on Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff have worsened since the summer, and sees the official opposition party losing ground in the seat-rich provinces of Ontario and Quebec.

Voting Intention

Two-in-five decided voters (41%, +4 since late September) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding if a new federal election took place today. The Liberals are a distant second at 27 per cent, unchanged in two weeks.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 16 per cent (-1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with eight per cent (-3), and the Green Party with six per cent (unchanged).

Regional Breakdowns

As has been the case throughout the year, the Tories remain popular in their strongholds of Alberta (52%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (57%). In British Columbia, the governing party is now within grasp of garnering a majority of all cast ballots (47%), while the NDP (22%) and the Liberals (21%) fight for second place.

In Ontario, support for the Conservatives has increased to 45 per cent, while the Liberals are a distant second with 29 per cent.

Still, Quebec has seen an evident shift since the start of the summer. While the Bloc is still ahead (36%), Grits (26%) and Tories (25%) are virtually tied. The numbers show that the Conservatives have effectively doubled their support in Quebec since June, while the Grits have lost some ground.

Momentum

In April, a few weeks after he was chosen to lead the Liberals, Michael Ignatieff posted a positive momentum score, a feat that was unattainable for either Stephen Harper or Jack Layton. During the summer, Ignatieff maintained a better momentum score than the two other main federal leaders.

In mid-October, the Liberal leader has seen his standing drop dramatically. A majority of Canadians (51%) say their opinion of Ignatieff has worsened over the course of the past month, while only six per cent report an improvement. The Grit leader's momentum score is -45.

Harper has seen his best numbers of the year, with 16 per cent of respondents saying their opinion of the Prime Minister has improved (up seven points since August) and 28 per cent saying it has worsened, for a momentum score of -12.

Layton also has a negative momentum score of -12, but the vast majority of respondents (62%) say their views on the NDP leader have not fluctuated over the course of the past month.

Preferred Prime Minister

Exactly six months ago, Harper and Ignatieff were tied when Canadians were asked who they preferred to lead the federal government, with about three-in-ten Quebecers selecting the Liberal leader, and less than one-in-ten picking the incumbent prime minister.

Now, Harper has opened a 17-point lead on this question at the national level (29% to 12%), with Ignatieff only marginally ahead of Layton (11%).

In Quebec, Ignatieff is now tied for third place (with Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe), three points behind Layton and six points behind Harper. In Ontario, where Harper and Ignatieff were locked in a close race back in April, Harper is outpacing Ignatieff by a three-to-one margin (32% to 11%).

The Issues

The edge that Harper has held on finances for the entire year has expanded, with 35 per cent of respondents claiming that the sitting prime minister is best suited to deal with the economy, compared to only 19 per cent for Ignatieff. On foreign affairs, Harper is now ahead of the opposition leader by three points.

Crime is the other issue where the prime minister is clearly chosen above his rivals (36%, compared to 12% for Ignatieff and 9% for Layton). Health care finds Harper and Layton virtually tied (23% to 22%), but the NDP leader is regarded as the best environmental steward (26%, followed by Harper with 18% and Ignatieff with 13%).

Characteristics

As part of this survey, respondents were provided with a list of 18 words people may use to describe Harper and Ignatieff, and asked to choose up to six to define either politician.

When assessing Harper, 46 per cent of respondents brand him as secretive, 44 per cent believe he is arrogant, 41 per cent regard him as intelligent, 38 per cent think he is out of touch, 38 per cent say he is boring, and 34 per cent believe he is uncaring.

While the list of words used the most by respondents has remained almost the same throughout the year, Harper managed to increase his standing as open, efficient, in touch and intelligent since August, while dropping markedly as a person who is uncaring, weak and boring.

As far as Ignatieff, 49 per cent of respondents believe he is arrogant, 44 per cent say he is intelligent, 42 per cent brand him as out of touch, 37 per cent believe he is boring, 32 per cent say he is inefficient, and 27 per cent brand him as secretive.

Since August, views on Ignatieff have increased dramatically—by at least five points—on being arrogant, inefficient, dishonest, weak, out of touch, and foolish.

Analysis

The Conservative Party had not reached the 40 per cent plateau since a survey conducted in December 2009, immediately after Liberal leader Stéphane Dion signed a coalition agreement with the NDP and the Bloc. Now, after a fortnight that featured a defeated no-confidence motion in the House of Commons and the prime minister's impromptu performance at an Ottawa gala, the Tories now see their elusive majority mandate within grasp.

For the Liberals, the situation is much tougher than it was at the start of the summer. The latest survey shows a drastic drop for Michael Ignatieff, particularly when compared with a poll that was conducted just days before he withdrew the party's support for the Tory minority government. The Grit leader is markedly seen as more arrogant and inefficient than he was two months ago.

The NDP appears to be successfully weathering the storm. Despite the suggestion that Layton would be chastised for his decision to prop up the Tories—by ordering the caucus to abstain during the no-confidence vote—perceptions of Jack Layton have remained practically unchanged since the summer.