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OTTAWA - The threat of a federal election is still looming but not much has changed in the minds of Canadian voters, a new Angus Reid Strategies/Toronto Star poll has found. The Canadian Political Pulse has found that the Conservative Party is up one point since a mid-September poll, to 37 per cent; the Liberals have remained stagnant at 29 per cent. The New Democratic Party is down one point to 16 per cent, the Bloc Québécois is down to 9 per cent (-1), and the Greens have added one point to reach eight per cent.

“The threat of an election has only increased the Conservative lead,” said Jodi Shanoff, Vice-President of Public Affairs at Angus Reid Strategies. “Despite his advertising Ignatieff has not been able to close the leadership gap with Harper.”

Though voting-intention may not be showing a great shift, there is some movement in the way Canadians perceive the party leaders. Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s momentum stands at -20, meaning that 11 per cent of respondents now have a better opinion of him than three months ago, while 31 per cent have a worse opinion of him. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff scores a worse momentum of -32. The NDP’s Jack Layton scores a negative momentum of -10, and the BQ’s Gilles Duceppe’s sits at -6.

Ignatieff’s momentum is worse than Harper’s for the first time since the Canadian Political Pulse has been asking this question with Ignatieff as Liberal leader.

In the category of preferred prime minister, the incumbent is ahead with 27 per cent, followed by the Liberal leader with 16 per cent, Layton with 12 per cent, and both Duceppe and Green Party leader Elizabeth May with three per cent. Just over a fifth (22%) of Canadians say that none of them is well suited to head the government.

Leadership and Issues

Canadians think Prime Minister Harper is best suited to deal with the economy (33%), health care (23%), and crime (38%) than Ignatieff, who scores 23 per cent, 16 per cent and 12 per cent in these issues, respectively. Ignatieff is trusted by most Canadians on handling foreign affairs (30%, followed closely by Harper at 28%).

Layton is a close second to Harper on health care (22%), and is preferred by more people to handle the environment (27%, compared to Harper and Ignatieff, both at 17%).

Canadians describe the current prime minister as mostly secretive (45%), boring (44%), and intelligent (43%). They qualify Ignatieff as primarily arrogant (51%), intelligent (46%) and out of touch (39%).

Regions

Support for the Conservatives remains especially high in Alberta (61%), and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (47%). Notably, the Tories are also very strong in Ontario (44%). The Grits remain particularly strong in Atlantic Canada (57%), and in Quebec (26%).

British Columbia (23%) and Atlantic Canada (21%) continue to pull the numbers up for the NDP. Ontario (10%), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (10%), and BC (14%) hold the highest number of Canadians supporting the Greens.

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