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Thunder Bay, ON -- The latest Ipsos Reid poll suggests that it is important for politicians to keep busy over the summer. In a week that highly publicized Prime Minister Stephen Harper asserting Canada’s northern sovereignty, coupled with think tanks and economists proclaiming Canada’s return from recession, a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global Television has revealed that the Tories are now in the driver’s seat, while the Liberals are faltering and are below thirty-percent support for the first time since the beginning of this year—back where they were after the last federal election.

If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives under Stephen Harper would receive 39% support among decided voters, up 5 points from Ipsos Reid’s last poll two months ago. Conversely, the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff, who has been apparently keeping a low profile this summer, would receive 28% support, down 7 points in just two months.

Following its national convention, Jack Layton’s NDP would now receive 14% of the vote (up 1 point), while Elizabeth May and the Green Party would garner 10% support (up 2 points). The Bloc, led by Gilles Duceppe, would receive 8% nationally, or 35% support in Quebec (down 3 points in Quebec). Seven percent (7%) of Canadians are undecided.

All in all, 45% of Canadians more closely identify with the sentiment that ‘Stephen Harper has done a good job and deserves re-election’ (down 1 point from last year), while one half (50%) believe that ‘Harper does not deserve to be re-elected’. Fewer than one in ten (6%) are don’t know which way they’d lean on the matter.

In Thunder Bay Superior North, both the Liberals and Conservatives have held their nomination meetings. The winners, Yves Fricot for the Liberals and Mike Auld for the Conservatives have been very quiet since winning their nominations. It is difficult to access what impact that decision may have on their chances if there is a fall election.

It has been even quieter in Thunder Bay Rainy River where former MP Ken Boshcoff was acclaimed by the Liberals, and the Conservatives have treated the summer as a time for holidays and rest.

In terms of what is driving the vote, in three of four areas studied, Stephen Harper beat out Michael Ignatieff as the leader who is best to manage the following issues: ‘improving the national economy’ (48% Harper, 40% Ignatieff), ‘representing Canada’s interests in world affairs’ (48% Harper, 41% Ignatieff), and – by the widest margin – ‘managing Canada’s finances’ (49% Harper, 37% Ignatieff). The only issue where the Liberal Leader came out ahead, marginally, was ‘protecting the environment’ (45% Ignatieff, 41% Harper).

Furthermore, when asked which of the following factors would most influence their vote in the next election, nearly one half (44%) said that they would vote for the ‘Party and leader who will do as they promise’. Four in ten (37%) said they’d vote for the ‘Party and leader who is best to lead through these tough economic times’, while just 14% would lean towards the ‘Party and leader who will have the best chance of forming a majority government’. Four percent don’t know which of these factors would most influence their vote.

The Liberals appear to have hit a road-block. Support for the party was steadily increasing throughout the course of the year, but peaked at the mid-thirties and has now returned to levels reminiscent of the Stephane Dion era. It appears that many Canadians remain hesitant to vote for the Liberal Party, and are not sure what it – and its leader – stand for.

Just 44% ‘agree’ (9% strongly/35% somewhat) that they ‘have a clear idea of what policies the Liberals would implement if they win the next election’, down 1 point since April. Conversely, a majority (52%) ‘disagrees’ with this notion, including 24% who ‘strongly disagree’, and 28% who ‘somewhat disagree’. Five percent (5%) are undecided on the matter. Further, just 43% ‘agree’ (15% strongly/28% somewhat) that ‘if the Liberals were in power they would do a better job of managing the economic crisis than the Conservatives are’ (unchanged), while a majority (51%) ‘disagrees’ (27% strongly/24% somewhat). Six percent (6%) don’t know what to think about this.

Moreover, Canadians are split on whether the ‘Liberal Party is ready again to govern Canada’ (47%, up 2 points), or not (49%). But with the proportion of Canadians who ‘strongly disagree’ (28%) that they are ready outweighing those who ‘strongly agree’ (14%) by a margin of 2 to 1, it appears that the Liberals still have a long way to go in convincing Canadians of their ability to govern once again. It is doubtful that Ignatieff and the Grits would gain any serious traction in the polls before addressing these underlying concerns of Canadians.

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